The ERM Current™

Now that the stress tests are over, it looks like the other shoe to drop may be certain changes in leadership at the nation’s largest financial institutions.  According to a report by CNN and Fortune Magazine, regulators are now interested in the ability of bank leaders to properly manage an institution’s risk profile.  Here is what was reported.

The nation’s leading banks may have been deemed solvent, but it remains to be seen whether top management at those firms will soon go bust. Among the findings in its two-month long “stress test” program announced May 7, the government not only told 10 institutions to raise a total of $75 billion in additional capital, but also pushed banks to take a hard look at their leadership. Industry regulators specifically asked banks to review both top executives and board members over the next month “to assure that the leadership of the firm has sufficient expertise and ability to manage the risks presented by the current economic environment.”

Performance to date indicates some institutions have developed “post stress test disorder” and changes may be needed. The only question is whether the changes will be made on their own volition or not.

Reports surfaced today that the U.S. Treasury is delaying the release of the stress test results until after the financial institutions have issued their first quarter earnings reports.  Here is what one report from the Boston Globe had to say.

The U.S. Treasury Department is asking banks not to mention the regulatory “stress tests” as part of their first-quarter earnings results, according to a source familiar with government discussions. Officials are still discussing how to release the results of the stress tests, and the decision will likely be made by the Treasury. The source said officials are aiming to release them in some form at the end of April after the first-quarter bank earnings season is over, and are trying to be sensitive to financial market reaction.

This is a very interesting development that could mean the results are not favorable.  The nature of the results remain to be seen, but one thing is certain – the U.S. Government is exerting a great amount of control over these financial institutions.  

During what is spring break for many students across the U.S. this week, some corporate students will be wondering what grade they will receive on their recent tests.  Of course, these students are the nation’s largest banking institutions and they are sweating the results of the “stress tests” that have been conducted over the past month.  While the Federal Reserve and Chairman Bernanke have been steadfast in their views that the tests are not “pass/fail” by nature, the results could prove to be highly impactful to the institutions.  Here is what the Wall Street Journal reported today.

Top federal bank regulators plan to meet early this week to discuss how to analyze the results of stress tests being conducted on the country’s 19 largest banks, people familiar with the matter said. Regulators announced the tests two months ago as part of an effort to determine how much assistance big banks might need to continue lending if the economic downturn worsens. The government is wrestling with how to bolster the lenders without appearing to prop up banks that are beyond repair.  Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Sunday that the Obama administration would consider removing top management and boards at financial companies if the government were to offer “exceptional” assistance to keep the firms operating.

The next few weeks could be very interesting as the test results shape actions by the regulators.  At the same time, first quarter earnings will be released which could prove to be a “double whammy” for some firms.